FORECASTING COSMETIC STOCK IN CV. CAHAYA SEJATI WITH SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD
Abstract
Cosmetics are products that are often used to beautify one's appearance. CV. Cahaya Sejati, which is one of the providers of cosmetics in Asahan Regency. The cosmetics that were targeted in this study were lipstick, solid powder, shampoo, liquid soap, perfume and handbody with different brands. The results of observations and interviews with the owner of the CV. Cahaya Sejati, cosmetic stock data collection in the warehouse still uses manual recording, so it takes a long time to see the cosmetic stock. In addition, the stock of cosmetics sold for sale so far has sometimes increased with different categories of cosmetics, some increasing and some decreasing. The instability of cosmetic sales makes the owner of CV. Cahaya Sejati has difficulty in determining the amount of cosmetic stock that will be sold in the future. The purpose of this study is to apply the Single Exponential Smoothing method to predict cosmetics in the future. The research method uses the Single Exponential Smoothing method. The stages of the method are cosmetic data collection, data analysis begins with determining the alpha value and calculating the single exponential smoothing method and performing the error accuracy process with MAD, MSE and MAPE. By using the Single Exponential Smoothing method, it will be carried out to predict the stock of cosmetics in the following month, namely March 2022 by using data from March to February 2022. So that the owner of CV. Cahaya Sejati will be able to make a decision in providing cosmetics in the following month. The results showed that in March 2022, Handbody: HBL Liora produced 18.02 with MAPE 22.45%, Lipstick: Dolby produced 22.57 with MAPE 19.36%, Liquid Soap: SPA. Gell yielded 23.10 with a MAPE of 19.27%, Shampoo : Doll yielded 17.26 with a MAPE of 29.25%, and Compact Powder : TWC Dolby yielded 24.74 with a MAPE of 19.91%. So it can be concluded that by applying the single exponential smoothing method, it can be used as a reference for making cosmetic stock decisions at CV. True Light.
Downloads
References
E. Indrayuni, “Klasifikasi Text Mining Review Produk Kosmetik Untuk Teks Bahasa Indonesia Menggunakan Algoritma Naive Bayes,” J. Khatulistiwa Inform., vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 29–36, 2019, doi: 10.31294/jki.v7i1.1.
F. E. Supriatin and A. N. Rohman, “Peramalan Produksi Perikanan Budidaya di Kabupaten Malang Dengan Metode Exponential Smoothing,” Media Akuatika J. Ilm. Jur. Budid. Perair., vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 51–58, 2020, [Online]. Available: http://ojs.uho.ac.id/index.php/JMA/article/view/11961.
N. L. W. S. R. Ginantra and I. B. G. Anandita, “Penerapan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Dalam Peramalan Penjualan Barang,” Sains Komput. dan Inform., vol. 3, no. September, pp. 433–441, 2019.
M. N. Arridho and Y. Astuti, “Penerapan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing untuk Memprediksi Penjualan Katering pada Kedai Pojok Kedaung,” J. Ilm. Intech Inf. Technol. J. UMUS, vol. 2, no. 02, pp. 35–44, 2020, doi: 10.46772/intech.v2i02.288.
Fahrunnisa, N. Manurung, and R. A. Dalimunthe, “PERAMALAN KASUS BARU PENDERITA HIPERTENSI DI KECAMATAN RAWANG PANCA ARGA DENGAN TEKNIK SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING,” J-Com (Journal Comput., vol. 1, no. 3, pp. 237–244, 2021.
A. B. Santoso, M. S. Rumetna, and K. Isnaningtyas, “Penerapan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Untuk Analisa Peramalan Penjualan,” J. Media Inform. Budidarma, vol. 5, no. 2, p. 756, 2021, doi: 10.30865/mib.v5i2.2951.
M. Qamal, “Peramalan Penjualan Makanan Ringan Dengan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing,” TECHSI J. Penelit. Tek. Inform., 2019.
I. Permadi, A. K. Nugroho, M. R. Rachmat, P. S. Informatika, F. Universitas, and J. Soedirman, “PREDICTION OF THE AMOUNT OF PEPPER HARVEST BY USING FUZZY PREDIKSI JUMLAH HASIL PANEN MERICA MENGGUNAKAN FUZZY,” J. Tenik Inform., vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 177–182, 2022.
I. L. P. Navalina, N. I. Riwajanti, S. Sulistyono, and L. Djajanto, “Forecasting Produksi Perikanan Laut Yang Dijual Di Tpi (Ton) Dengan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing,” Media Mahard., vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 206–214, 2020, doi: 10.29062/mahardika.v18i2.149.
A. Nurlifa and S. Kusumadewi, “Sistem Peramalan Jumlah Penjualan Menggunakan Metode Moving Average Pada Rumah Jilbab Zaky,” INOVTEK Polbeng - Seri Inform., vol. 2, no. 1, p. 18, 2017, doi: 10.35314/isi.v2i1.112.
F. M. Yuma, “Sistem Peramalan Harga Emas Menggunakan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing,” Semin. Nas. R., vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 299–302, 2018, [Online]. Available: https://jurnal.stmikroyal.ac.id/index.php/senar/article/view/272.
N. H. A. S. Al Ihsan, H. H. Dzakiyah, and F. Liantoni, “Perbandingan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing dan Metode Holt untuk Prediksi Kasus COVID-19 di Indonesia,” Ultim. J. Tek. Inform., vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 89–94, 2020, doi: 10.31937/ti.v12i2.1689.
G. Putra and A. R. Maulud, “Peramalan Kebutuhan Batubara Menggunakan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing di PT . Solusi Bangun Andalas,” J. Optim., vol. 6, pp. 131–141, 2020, [Online]. Available: www.jurnal.utu.ac.id/joptimalisasi.
S. Panggabean, P. R. Sihombing, and ..., “Simulasi Exponential Moving Avarage dan Single Exponential Smoothing: Sebuah Perbandingan Akurasi Metode Peramalan,” J. Pemikir. …, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 1–10, 2021, [Online]. Available: http://journal.rekarta.co.id/index.php/jp3m/article/view/339%0Ahttps://journal.rekarta.co.id/index.php/jp3m/article/download/339/320.
D. Gunawan and W. Joni, “Perancangan Sistem Informasi Purchase Order Menggunakan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing,” J. Mhs. Apl. Teknol. Komput. dan Inf., vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 13–18, 2020.
D. INDAH RUSPRIYANTY and A. SOFRO, “Peramalan Persewaan Kaset Video Dengan Menggunakan Moving Average,” MATHunesa, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 75–80, 2018.
Copyright (c) 2022 Tria Purnamika Putri, Ruri Ashari Dalimunthe, Sri Rezki Maulina Azmi
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
