Global Inflation Forecasting Using Stacking Ensemble with Elastic Net Meta-Learner Integrating Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.52436/1.jutif.2026.7.3.5599Keywords:
ElasticNet, Inflation Forecasting, LightGBM, Machine Learning, Random Forest, Stacking Ensemble, XGBoostAbstract
Inflation dynamics have become increasingly complex due to economic volatility and nonlinear interactions, challenging the reliability of conventional forecasting models; therefore, this study develops a robust global inflation forecasting framework using a hybrid stacking ensemble that integrates Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM as base learners with Elastic Net as a regularized meta-learner, applied to annual inflation data from 2000–2024 across five major economic blocs (G7, Europe, BRICS, ASEAN, and the Americas) after temporal feature engineering and time-series–preserving validation; the results demonstrate strong and consistent predictive performance, with very high accuracy in Europe (R² = 0.9282) and the G7 (R² = 0.9122), and the globally trained stacking model (R² = 0.7866) substantially outperforming the region-specific ASEAN model (R² = 0.5243), confirming the advantage of cross-country learning; this research advances informatics and computer science by providing a scalable and stable ensemble learning framework for macroeconomic time-series forecasting in volatile environments, supporting the development of AI-driven economic and policy analytics systems.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Fauriza Wildhani, Anjar Wanto, Irfan Sudahri Damanik
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